January Football is Back: NFL playoff predictions

Happy New Year! And happy new NFL season, that is, the NFL playoffs! The 12 teams that made it this year are already known and this upcoming weekend the wild card games are happening. Our predictions are based on 100,000 simulations of the tournament with the win probabilities obtained from the football prediction matchup algorithm (with some adjustments from a regression-based rating to adjust for injuries and personel changes). Just to remind that FPM had a record 10-1 last year (with the only game missing being the super bowl game; unfortunately FPM does not make the offensive play calls for teams…).

The initial projections are given in the following:


Patriots and Steelers (closely followed by the Chiefs) are the AFC favorites, while the Vikings are the NFC top favorite (despite the Eagles being the top-seed).  The most possible matchup at the moment is Patriots-Vikings, which appeared in almost 10% of the simulations, while the probability of having a Pennsylvania Super Bowl (Steelers-Eagles) is around 7.5%.


Wild card round is over, and Bills, Panthers, Chiefs and Rams are eliminated from contention. The latest projections are as follows:



Divisional round is over and 4 teams remain in contention:



Super bowl matchup is set and the Patriots are opening as the favorite:

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