If the regular season serves as an indicator for what we will see in the playofss, we are certainly in for a treat! With the playoffs for the Basketball Champions League right around the corner, we make our predictions – that will keep being updated as the playoffs progress. First we start with the final regular season ratings for each team:
These ratings are obtained through a regression model (a simplified version of it can be found here) and as we can see Monaco and Tenerife are the top-2 teams with Riesen Ludwigsburg following at the third place. Using these ratings we simulate the playoffs 10,000 times to make our predictions for the final ultimate winner. For the final 4 pairings, we draw them randomly in every simulation (since after all the same will happen when the 4 finalists are known!). Following are our initial projections:
It is not a suprise that Monaco and Tenerife are the favorites, while the cluster of Nymburk, Strasbourg, Neptunas and AEK that are matching up together at the top-16 and top-8 is the most balanced one in terms of probability of making it to the playoffs!
With the first leg of the top-16 round coming up following is the distribution of the expected point differential for each of these games:
Each colored area gives the win probability for the corresponding team (or else positive values for point differential correspond to home team win, while negative values correspond to visiting team win). As we see the two games that are expected to be the most balanced are PAOK-Pinar and Bayreuth-Basiktas.
With the first leg of the top-16 round over, following are the updates in our predictions. As you will see there are some pretty big swings in favor of Banvit, Nymburk and Riesen Ludwigsburg.
Taking the results of the top-16 leg 1 into account following are the projections for each of the upcoming rounds:
Tenerife is still at the top of the race, while Ludwigsburg has emerged as the second favorite, while Monaco’s poor outing (compared to the expectations) at leg 1 dropped their chances for the trophy to 10%.