It is this time of the year again where the euroleague is ready to kick off its playoffs on the road to the final 4. We helped you get a sense of what to expect using a simple regression-based rating model. Note that the model is a vanilla regression model without all the bells and whistles – after all we need to keep our secret sauce…secret (e.g., there is no regularization, no weighting of recent games, no customization through cross-validation for the variance between the ratings and the actual point margin etc.) so do not use this model to make bets!
The ratings we got after the end of the regular season are:
Using these ratings we get the following projections (they will be updated after every game):
As we can see CSKA opens as the bit favorite followed by Real Madrid and the reign champion Fener. Many fans (at least in Greece) are looking forward to a Greek final, but the chances of this happening are only about 1.5%.
After the first two games of the series two teams have made the break, Real and Zalgiris. On the other hand CSKA and Fener have made a strong case for being present at the final 4 once more, while the chance of a Greek final is still around 1.5%.
We are only days away from the final four and here are our updated projections for the semifinals and the finals:
CSKA once more defied the probabilities and … did not win the title, so we are headed for a very balanced final between Fener and Real Madrid. Will Obradovic win his 10th title, or Real win her 10th title? Numbers do not help since they do not give any favorite (in fact Fener is a slight favorite with 50.5% win probability if this is considered a favorite). We are in for a great final!