A recent article described how the volume of three-point shots taken in the Basketball Champions League (BCL) has shown an increasing trend – in alignment with the trend in the NBA that has been observed for several years now and has coincided with the ascent of the analytics movement in the sport. The analytical explanation of… Read More Offensive and Defensive Efficiency in Basketball Champions League
Many times, in sports we need to evaluate players with limited information. Should we sign a QB for whom we have only observed 30 pass attempts? What is our best estimate for the probability distribution for his yards/attempt? What about a kicker that has only taken 5 field goals of 50+ yards? How can we decide… Read More Bayesian player evaluation
With the NHL season right around the corner, this marks my first ever post on hockey. Clearly hockey is not my sport, but this shows how math and analytics can cast a net over all sports. One of the constant questions in sports is how much of a team’s or player’s success is due to… Read More Faceoffs: Skill or Luck?
With the Eurobasket 2017 tournament under way, I provide regression-based ratings for the teams. Every team T will be assigned a rating r(T) (to be found) that represents how many points better (or worse) the team is compared to an average team, which will have a rating of 0. Using these ratings we can project… Read More Eurobasket 2017: Team Ratings
We are 4 days before the new NFL season and everyone is getting their football mode on again (if they haven’t yet). Making any judgements on how the season will turn out using the pre-season game showings of the teams is rather useless. Equally bad is trying to transfer the ratings of last season to… Read More Pre-season NFL ratings based on Vegas total win lines
Everyone (almost) agrees that the offensive line is crucial for the success of a team. However, evaluating the offensive line in NFL is still a mystery and underdeveloped. The offensive line has an important role in both the passing game (by protecting the QB from sacks and hits), as well as in the running game (by… Read More Rating Offensive Lines in NFL
Ranking and rating teams has been one of the major tasks in the sports analytics community. One of the most elegant approaches I have seen is the one presented by W. Winston in his book “Mathletics“. In this post I will adopt the general approach presented and add a few elements more. Our case study… Read More Soccer Ratings: An Optimization Approach