Skill Curves in the NFL: Unlocking the Interactions between Passing & Rushing

The NFL has clearly turned to a pass-first league during the past decade or so, and for a good reason.  Passing is overall more efficient!  Indeed using play-by-play data from the 2014-2016 NFL seasons and the Winston-Sagarin-Cabot model for expected points, a passing play adds on average 0.25 expected points, while a rushing play adds… Read More Skill Curves in the NFL: Unlocking the Interactions between Passing & Rushing

Lineups in Basketball and Win Probability Added

Metrics typically reported in sports media to help understand the performance of lineups include +/- and efficiency ratings. Overall they do a pretty good job in describing the performance of a lineup except for when they do not. For instance,  during garbage times points scored/allowed can directly overvalue/undervalue the performance of a lineup. Of course,… Read More Lineups in Basketball and Win Probability Added

Basketball Lineup Ratings: a Bayesian Adjustment Approach

Evaluating lineups has traditionally been one of the tasks that “analytics” are commissioned with in basketball (and other sports with frequent substitutions). 5, 3 and 2 men lineups are typically analyzed, with the latter two offering a larger sample to work with. The metric that is typically utilized to evaluate the performance of a lineup… Read More Basketball Lineup Ratings: a Bayesian Adjustment Approach

January Football is Back: NFL playoff predictions

Happy New Year! And happy new NFL season, that is, the NFL playoffs! The 12 teams that made it this year are already known and this upcoming weekend the wild card games are happening. Our predictions are based on 100,000 simulations of the tournament with the win probabilities obtained from the football prediction matchup algorithm… Read More January Football is Back: NFL playoff predictions

A Shooting Dictionary for Players and Teams in Basketball Champions League

Shooting charts have been an integral part of a basketball game’s summary for quiet some time now. Fans like visual information and can easily grasp it. However, if one wants to understand the shooting patterns of teams/players and how they differ (and how potentially this can drive pre-game scouting and in-game strategy) heuristic comparison of… Read More A Shooting Dictionary for Players and Teams in Basketball Champions League