Skill Curves in the NFL: Unlocking the Interactions between Passing & Rushing

The NFL has clearly turned to a pass-first league during the past decade or so, and for a good reason. Passing is overall more efficient! Indeed using play-by-play data from the 2014-2016 NFL seasons and the Winston-Sagarin-Cabot model for expected points, a passing play adds on average 0.25 expected points, while a rushing play adds… Read More Skill Curves in the NFL: Unlocking the Interactions between Passing & Rushing

April 25, 2018April 25, 2018 kpele1 Comment

Lineups in Basketball and Win Probability Added

Metrics typically reported in sports media to help understand the performance of lineups include +/- and efficiency ratings. Overall they do a pretty good job in describing the performance of a lineup except for when they do not. For instance, during garbage times points scored/allowed can directly overvalue/undervalue the performance of a lineup. Of course,… Read More Lineups in Basketball and Win Probability Added

April 12, 2018 kpele1 Comment

Euroleague 2017-18: Playoff and Final-4 projections

It is this time of the year again where the euroleague is ready to kick off its playoffs on the road to the final 4. We helped you get a sense of what to expect using a simple regression-based rating model. Note that the model is a vanilla regression model without all the bells and whistles… Read More Euroleague 2017-18: Playoff and Final-4 projections

April 10, 2018May 19, 2018 kpele2 Comments

Basketball Champions League Predictions: Playoffs 2017-18

If the regular season serves as an indicator for what we will see in the playofss, we are certainly in for a treat! With the playoffs for the Basketball Champions League right around the corner, we make our predictions – that will keep being updated as the playoffs progress. First we start with the final… Read More Basketball Champions League Predictions: Playoffs 2017-18

March 4, 2018May 7, 2018 kpele2 Comments

Basketball Lineup Ratings: a Bayesian Adjustment Approach

Evaluating lineups has traditionally been one of the tasks that “analytics” are commissioned with in basketball (and other sports with frequent substitutions). 5, 3 and 2 men lineups are typically analyzed, with the latter two offering a larger sample to work with. The metric that is typically utilized to evaluate the performance of a lineup… Read More Basketball Lineup Ratings: a Bayesian Adjustment Approach

March 3, 2018March 4, 2018 kpele1 Comment

January Football is Back: NFL playoff predictions

Happy New Year! And happy new NFL season, that is, the NFL playoffs! The 12 teams that made it this year are already known and this upcoming weekend the wild card games are happening. Our predictions are based on 100,000 simulations of the tournament with the win probabilities obtained from the football prediction matchup algorithm… Read More January Football is Back: NFL playoff predictions

January 1, 2018January 22, 2018 kpeleLeave a comment

A Shooting Dictionary for Players and Teams in Basketball Champions League

Shooting charts have been an integral part of a basketball game’s summary for quiet some time now. Fans like visual information and can easily grasp it. However, if one wants to understand the shooting patterns of teams/players and how they differ (and how potentially this can drive pre-game scouting and in-game strategy) heuristic comparison of… Read More A Shooting Dictionary for Players and Teams in Basketball Champions League

December 8, 2017December 8, 2017 kpele1 Comment

The Athlytics Blog

Every play is a data point!